SPC AC 030730

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024

   Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE ARKLATEX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Sunday
   across parts of the southern Plains to the ArkLaTex.

   ...Synopsis...
   A strong upper trough/low over the western CONUS is expected to
   advance eastward towards the northern/central Rockies on Sunday
   while evolving into a negatively tilted open wave. A weak
   southern-stream upper trough should continue to move across the
   southern Plains into the lower MS Valley through the day. At the
   surface, lee cyclogenesis will occur through the period over the
   northern/central High Plains as large-scale ascent preceding the
   upper trough overspreads this region. Rich low-level will return
   northward over much of the Plains in response.

   ...Southern Plains to the ArkLaTex...
   Multiple rounds of convection will likely have occurred across much
   of the southern Plains prior to the start of the Day 3 period Sunday
   morning. It appears possible that one or more thunderstorm clusters
   may be ongoing Sunday morning over parts of OK/TX in association
   with a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the southern Plains. Some
   regeneration/strengthening of convection may occur on the eastern
   fringes of this morning activity as gradual destabilization occurs
   with filtered daytime heating, with an isolated threat for mainly
   damaging winds across the ArkLaTex and vicinity. In the wake of the
   shortwave trough passage, the airmass across much of the southern
   Plains may tend to remain capped. One exception may be along
   trailing outflow from the morning thunderstorms. If convection can
   initiate, a moderately to strongly unstable airmass across
   central/north TX, along with sufficient deep-layer shear, would
   support robust thunderstorms with some hail/wind threat. Still,
   large-scale forcing appears nebulous at best across this region, and
   overall convective coverage across OK/TX remains rather uncertain.
   Have therefore included a fairly broad Marginal Risk to account for
   this somewhat conditional/unfocused severe potential.

   ..Gleason.. 05/03/2024

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z